In Part 2, I organized the general trends in ticket pricing.
This time, I combined those trends with my desire to support Japan in person to explain how I selected my matches and the thinking behind it.

This was before the draw (as of November 2025), with everything still undecided.
Still, after much deliberation, here is the match-day plan I put together. .

(Link to the FIFA resale page is here)

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Chapter 3: City Selection Strategy for Watching Japan

My goal is simple:

Watch Japan play live.

Prioritizing this above all else,
I decided to skip group stage (GS) tickets and concentrate funds on the knockout rounds (R32 and R16).
That was the strategy I arrived at.

There are two reasons:

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1. Japan's growing strength

In recent years, Japan has shown they can compete with top nations in international tournaments,
and their FIFA ranking has been steadily rising.

Advancing past the group stage is very realistic.
I felt the team had the quality to back that up.

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2. Higher probability of advancing past the group stage (due to format changes)

The 2026 World Cup expands to 48 teams with a new format. 48-team format As a result:

• Even 3rd place in the group can still advance
• The unfairness of bracket matchups is reduced compared to before
• Strong teams are more likely to progress further

is how the format now works.

In other words,
Rather than worrying about wasting tickets if Japan exits in the group stage,
I feared more the scenario where Japan advances but tickets are too expensive.

That thinking was the biggest reason for focusing on the knockout rounds.

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My Criteria for Match Selection

Within the knockout rounds, I narrowed my ticket selection down to 3 criteria:

1. Routes Japan might advance through

Consider which groups Japan might be drawn into,
and select matches that would be ideal if Japan plays there.

2. Matches likely to be blockbusters even without Japan

Matchups likely to feature top nations means
ticket value holds up well.

3. Prioritize low-tax cities to minimize costs

As I learned in Part 2,
city tax rate differences = tens of thousands of yen.
This was truly significant.

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The 3 Fateful Matches I Chose (4 tickets each)

Meeting all 3 criteria,
balancing risk diversification with faith in Japan, here are my 3 matches:

* Prices are converted at the purchase rate of approximately 1 USD = 160 yen.

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1. [Main Target: Betting on Japan finishing 1st] Match 89 (R16, Philadelphia)

• Purchase price: Approx. $1,552/ticket (about 248,000 yen)
• Strategy: Group E winner vs. Group I winner
• Reasoning::
  If Japan ends up in Group E or I and tops the group,
  　they would play in Philadelphia.

It could be the match where Japan fights for a quarterfinal spot. Even without Japan, it's likely to feature European powerhouses, so the ticket value shouldn't collapse — making it good as funds for buying Japan match tickets later.I have absolutely no intention of making money through ticket trading.I just want to find a way to attend Japan's matchesand that's my only motivation.: Approx. $895/ticket (about 143,000 yen): C group winner vs. F group winnerReasoning:

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2. [Insurance: Tax-free affordable match] Match 76 (R32, Houston)

• Purchase priceR32 means 'less popular match = lower prices.' It's a good entry-level investment.
• StrategyBut don't be fooled — this is
• Reasoning::
  a route where a strong seeded team from Group C is likely to appear, and zero tax (Texas) is an unbeatable advantage.

If I need to buy Japan match tickets later, these tickets could serve as funds if I can resell them.

That's the thinking behind this cost-efficient pick.

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3. [Long Shot: American excitement factor] Match 94 (R16, Seattle)

• Purchase price: Approx. $1,322/ticket (about 211,000 yen)
• Strategy: Group D winner (USA?) vs. Group G winner
• Reasoning::
  One of the most likely routes for host nation USA to advance through.

While the chance of Japan being involved is low —

• if it becomes a USA match, it instantly becomes a platinum ticket
• There's also a chance a powerhouse like Brazil shows up

— I chose this as a long-shot-but-dreamy pick.

The 10% tax was painful, but I secured it as a potential fund source for Japan match tickets if needed. Of course, if Japan ends up in Group G and reaches the R16, that would be the best outcome!

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Why Only 3 Matches?

Some might think I should have bought more.
But in my case, there are two reasons:

1. Simply a budget limitation

These 3 matches (12 tickets total) alone cost a total of 2.5 million yen..
I simply couldn't afford more than that.

2. Statistically, 3 matches is enough to work with

The knockout rounds (R32 + R16) consist of 24 matches total..
Of those, I already secured 3 matches (12.5%)..

Considering draw odds of just a few percent,
a 12.5% shot at a Japan match or premium card
felt like a fair gamble.

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On to Part 4

In the next Part 4,
the night I pressed Pay Now with trembling hands, and
the shocking truth revealed in an invoice. the invoice that arrived afterwards
— I'll document it all.

overpriced, Continue to Part 4: Pressing Pay Now(link coming soon)