Which seat category has come closest to its fair value?
In this installment, we dig deeper into market trends by category (Cat 1 through 3). For this analysis, we tentatively set the estimated face values for this tournament as Cat 1 = $600, Cat 2 = $450, Cat 3 = $200 and organized the data along two axes: the decline rate and the face value ratio (premium). Note: Cat 4 is excluded from this analysis due to limited stadium availability and resulting data bias.
1. Decline rate by category (Dec 5 to Dec 20)
As initial expectations fade, we examine which category held up the best.
| [Official Resale] 2/21 Price Report: Final Data Before Closing! All 72 Matches | Change rate | Market reaction |
| Cat 1 | ▲12.3% | Smallest decline. Value remains stable, supported by wealthy buyers and hospitality demand. |
| Cat 2 | ▲27.1% | Largest decline. The category where speculative buyers driven by initial hype exited the most. |
| Cat 3 | ▲20.2% | Moderate resilience. Serves as a landing zone for genuine demand, but price adjustments continue. |
2. Analysis of premium ratio relative to face value
We visualize how many times above the (tentative) face value the current official resale prices are trading at.
| [Official Resale] 2/21 Price Report: Final Data Before Closing! All 72 Matches | Estimated face value | Resale price (Dec 20) | Ratio to Face Value |
| Cat 1 | $600 | $1,303 | Approx. 2.2x |
| Cat 2 | $450 | $955 | Approx. 2.1x |
| Cat 3 | $200 | $676 | Approx. 3.4x |
[Analysis perspective] While Cat 1 had the smallest decline rate, when looking at the ratio to face value,Cat 1 and Cat 2 have already settled to around 2xthe face value level. On the other hand,Cat 3 still maintains a high premium of 3.4x even after the decline.This high premium persists because genuine demand psychology drives buyers toward cheaper seats first, keeping lower-category prices elevated.
Summary: Where is the smart choice?
- For stability as an asset: Cat 1: Low crash risk, and the premium of 2.2x is beginning to look relatively affordable.
- Still overpriced: Cat 3: Strong entry-level demand means it will likely take more time for prices to return to face value levels.
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