Your odds go up when you apply as a group rather than alone. Here, cooperation means each travel companion applies with their own account.
(A separate article on odds when non-attending helpers join will follow.)
However3 or more peoplethe situation changes because ofthe max 4 tickets rulewhich prevents you from going for both Pitch-side and Behind-the-goal seats at the same time, reducing your strategic flexibility. Also, based on official resale prices, the Netherlands match appears to be more popular at this point.
The method we cover here is having each travel companion apply with their own account. For a group of 2, both people apply; for 4, all four apply. The goal is not to boost one person's luck but to increase the group's overall chance of winning.
For example, looking at the table below, if two friends apply for Behind-the-goal seats at the Dallas Netherlands match, the estimated chance of getting tickets is roughly one in three.
| Match | What the strategy means | Solo | Group of 2 | Group of 3 | Group of 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands match | Want Pitch-side | 10% | 19% | 27% | 34% |
| Netherlands match | Want Behind-the-goal | 20% | 36% | 49% | 59% |
| Netherlands match | Either is fine | 28% | 48% | Not possible | Not possible |
| Tunisia match | Want Pitch-side | 17% | 31% | 43% | 53% |
| Tunisia match | Want Behind-the-goal | 32% | 54% | 69% | 79% |
| Tunisia match | Either is fine | 44% | 68% | Not possible | Not possible |
* "Group of 2/3..." means the number of people going = the number of people applying.
These are NOT official odds
The odds in this article are not published by FIFA.We simplified factors like ticket category differences, the max-4 rule, and resale market sentiment into easy-to-read estimates.So the point is not to declare win or lose, but ratherwhich conditions give you the best advantage. For the full picture on lotteries and resale, start with our overview article.
Terms
What does Solo / Group of 2... mean?
A group means the number of people going, each applying with their own account. A group of 4 = 4 people each enter the lottery.What if all 4 win and you end up with 16 tickets total?We believe this can be handled. See the details below.
What the strategy means
We simplify to just 3 scenarios.
- Want Pitch-side (apply via General category)
- Want Behind-the-goal (apply via Supporter category)
- Either is fine (apply to both General and Supporter categories)
Why can't groups of 3+ go for both seat types?
The reason flexibility drops with 3+ people is the 4-ticket-per-match limit. A pair can apply for 2 General + 2 Supporter tickets and cover both, but a trio would need 3+3 which exceeds the cap, so you must choose one type.
Assumptions used in this analysis
Everything below is based on these assumptions. Think of it as: given these conditions, here is how it looks.
- Netherlands match: Pitch-side (General) = 10%, Behind-the-goal (Supporter) = 20%
- Tunisia match: Assumed easier than Netherlands. Pitch-side = 17%, Behind-the-goal = 32%
- Either seat (dual entry): Available for 1-2 people only. NED match 28 percent, TUN match 44 percent (higher because you can enter two categories)
For details on the dual-entry conditions, see our previous article.
Since the Netherlands match is currently more popular, we assume the Downgrade (DG) option has no effect for that match. For the Tunisia match, we assume DG has some effect and have slightly raised the odds.
Resale data also suggests Japan matches are less popular, so Supporter ticket odds may be even better.
Note that seat allocation differs between Pitch-side and Behind-the-goal, as detailed in our previous articles. Pitch-side likely has more scalpers so we set lower odds for it. We estimate that Pitch-side and Behind-the-goal allocations are roughly equal for this 3rd lottery.
However, as noted before, Cat 1 Pitch-side for the Tunisia match is monopolized by hospitality packages, making those odds extremely tough. (We will cover a separate guide for getting help from non-attending friends for this case.)
Official Resale Lowest Price (Recent)
| Match | Cat 1 Lowest (Resale) | Face Value Cat 1 (Reference) | Approx. markup ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands match | $1,210.27 | $600 | About 2.0x |
| Tunisia match | $697.02 | $450 | About 1.5x |
Winning Odds (Rough Estimates)
Read it as: the chance that your group of this sizewins at least once(= success if anyone in the group wins). If you get duplicate wins, just sell the extras on the official resale. At current prices, you would likely even make a small profit (though I am not recommending that as a strategy).
Winning Odds (With Downgrade Option)
| Match | What the strategy means | Solo | Group of 2 | Group of 3 | Group of 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands match | Want Pitch-side | 10% | 19% | 27% | 34% |
| Netherlands match | Want Behind-the-goal | 20% | 36% | 49% | 59% |
| Netherlands match | Either seat (dual entry) | 28% | 48% | Not possible | Not possible |
| Tunisia match | Want Pitch-side | 17% | 31% | 43% | 53% |
| Tunisia match | Want Behind-the-goal | 32% | 54% | 69% | 79% |
| Tunisia match | Either seat (dual entry) | 44% | 68% | Not possible | Not possible |
Key takeaways from this table
- Groups of 2 or fewerenjoy high flexibility with dual-entry strategy
- 3 or more peopleWith 3 or more, the max-4 rule breaks dual entry, forcing you to pick one seat type.
- More companions help simply because more entries mean more chances.
Next: How many family and friends should you ask to help with the lottery over the holidays? We will run the numbers.
This time we set rough odds and visualized which factors matter most. Next up: coordinating with friends and family who are not attending. How many helpers do you really need? We plan to analyze that.
For reference, here are the key things to know when asking non-attending friends or family to help with the lottery.
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