[3rd Lottery] Results Are Here! Odds, Preparation & Next Steps

Starting February 5,the 2026 FIFA World Cup 3rd Ticket Lottery (Random Selection Draw)results will be announced. For those who have been applying for the lottery, this week is a crucial turning point.

In this article, we look at how popular the 3rd lottery was, how difficult it actually is to win, what you should do before the results are announced, and what your options are in case things don't go as planned, drawing from my own experience.

* This article is intended for informational purposes and does not guarantee winning. Please verify all official information atFIFA Official Ticket Sitethe official FIFA website.

1. The 3rd Lottery Was Extremely Popular - Even FIFA Officially Acknowledges It

First, let's establish that competition in this 3rd lottery was far fiercer than expected.

In the press release, the 3rd lottery was described as 'significantly oversubscribed.'

In other words,This means the number of applications clearly exceeded the supply (available tickets). In other words, there are far more people who will not win than those who will.The total number of applications for the 1st through 3rd lotteries exceeded 500 million.

2. What Is the Estimated Average Odds? (Not Officially Published / Estimated)

With the total ticket supply for the entire tournament at around 5.7 to 6 million, the scale of oversubscription is clear.While there are no official figures, here is a rough estimate based on publicly available data.

Total applications for all 3 lotteries: approx. 500 millionTotal ticket supply for the tournament: approx. 5.7 to 6 millionSimple overall odds: approximately 1 in 80 to 100

Estimated Average Odds

• However, since many applicants apply for multiple matches, the realistic per-match odds are estimated at around 10-15x (1 in 10-15 chance), and for popular matches, likely over 20x.
• * These figures vary significantly by match, category, and number of applicants.

Matches involving Japan, strong European sides (Netherlands, Germany, England, etc.), and well-connected North American host cities (e.g. Dallas) saw especially heavy demand.

3. I Applied for Over 80 Tickets Myself... But Even That's No Guarantee

I myself, for this 3rd lottery,asked family members to help and applied for a total of over 80 tickets.

My main focus was, of course,the Japan vs Netherlands match.

But honestly speaking --considering the odds, even that gives me less than a 50-50 chanceof winning.

It's not about thinking 'I've applied enough to be safe.' The feeling is more like 'after all that work, I'm barely at the starting line.' That's how intense this lottery is.

4. Results Coming This Week. What You Should Do Right Now

Timing of Result Notifications (Official Information)

According to the FIFA official FAQ:

• From February 5 onward(no earlier than 5 February 2026)
• Notifications will not be sent all at once, butgradually
• Notifications will be sent via email (successful / partially successful / unsuccessful)

In Japan time,from the evening of Feb 5 to the morning of Feb 6 onwardis when things are likely to start moving.

Things You Must Check in Advance

• Credit cardavailable limit / balance
• International payment restrictionshave not been applied
• FIFA emailsare not filtered into junk mailIf you applied from multiple accounts, be sure to check all of them!

Even if you have family members help you apply, there is a possibility that multiple people win tickets for the same match. If that happens, you may end up with more tickets than you need.In my case, I applied with family members, soI actually hope some of them don't win

5. What If You Win Multiple Lotteries? We'll Cover Resale in Detail in the Next Article

-- that's the complicated position I'm in. But the fact remains thatthere is a real chance of winning duplicates.

About the FIFA Official Ticket Resale:

• How does official resale work?
• When can you start listing?
• How are prices determined?
• Can you actually sell them?

There are many misconceptions about these topics, sowe plan to organize and explain them based on official information in the next article.

Summary

• The 3rd lottery isofficially recognized by FIFA as an 'ultra-competitive battle'
• Estimated average odds are10-15x, with popular cards possibly over 20xodds
• Even applying in large volumes does not guarantee a win
• Before the results are announced,credit card mattersmust be confirmed
• Your next steps (resale and first-come sales) have already begun

Regardless of the outcome, this is not the end. Including theLast-Minute Sales from April onward, let's keepseeking the best path via 'official channels only'.