Hello. The third lottery results for FIFA World Cup 2026 have been announced. I applied for 84 tickets and secured 8 in total, including Japan vs. Netherlands and Japan vs. Tunisia.
With more fans getting tickets through the third lottery, how has the resale market been affected? Here I analyze the official resale prices as of February 9 for all 72 group stage matches.
- Shocking Analysis: Cat 3 (Cheapest Seats) Have Surged the Most!
- Top 3 Most Expensive Matches
- Japan and South Korea Match Price Trends
- The Reality of Host Nation Premiums
- Are There Any Bargain Matches?
- Sellout Status (Supply Tightness)
- Analyzing the Third Lottery Impact
- Will Japan match prices decline?
- Summary: Buying Strategy Advice
- Bonus: Price Data Download
Shocking Analysis: Cat 3 (Cheapest Seats) Have Surged the Most!
The most surprising finding in this analysis wasthe abnormal price surge in Cat 3 (cheapest category)..
Price Change Rates by Category vs. Face Value (as of 2/9)
- Cat 1 (Premium Seats): Average +106% (approx. 2.1x)
- Cat 2 (Mid-tier Seats): Average +87% (approx. 1.9x)
- Cat 3 (Cheapest Seats): Average +243% (approx. 3.4x) This clearly shows that the cheapest category has surged the most dramatically.
The reason is simple:Demand for the most affordable seats is extremely high,making Cat 3 the most fiercely competitive category.
Looking at the actual numbers:
Cat 3 face value average: $235
Cat 3 current price average: $807(approx. 120,000 yen)
These can no longer be called 'cheapest seats' at this price range.
Top 3 Most Expensive Matches
The top 3 matches with the highest price change rates from face value are:
1st: Colombia vs. Portugal (Match 71)
- Price change: +457%
Face value: $500 -> Current price: $2,784 (Cat 2)
2nd: Mexico vs. South Africa (Match 1, Opening Match)
- Price change: +335%
Face value: $1,705 -> Current price: $7,416(Cat 2)
Cat 2 at approximately 1.1 million yen — an abnormal price
3rd: Mexico vs. South Korea (Match 28)
- Price change: +325%
Face value: $500 -> Current price: $2,126 (Cat 2)
The opening match Mexico game being extremely expensive was expected, but the Colombia vs. Portugal match surging this much is noteworthy.
Japan and South Korea Match Price Trends
Asian team matches have also seen significant price increases across the board.
Japan Matches
- Netherlands vs. Japan (Match 11): Cat 2 at $1,150 (up +167% from face value of $430)
All other Japan matches are also above face value
South Korea Matches
- Mexico vs. South Korea (Match 28): +325% surge
- South Korea vs. European Playoff Winner (Match 2): Still on sale
Demand from Asian fans traveling to attend and local Asian communities is likely driving prices up.
The Reality of Host Nation Premiums
Mexico Venues = Bubble Territory
Opening match (Match 1): Cat 2 at $7,416
vs. South Korea (Match 28): $2,126
All Mexico matches are surging
US Venues = Stable High Prices
vs. Australia (Match 32): $1,725
vs. Paraguay (Match 4): $2,116
Canada Venues
vs. European PO (Match 3): $2,067 for Cat 3
Mexico City matches in particular are skyrocketing due to high domestic demand.
Are There Any Bargain Matches?
Out of all 72 matches,only 8 matches can be purchased below face value,making it a very challenging market.
Top 3 Matches Priced Below Face Value
1. Cape Verde vs. Saudi Arabia (Match 65): -36% ($380 → $242)
2. FIFA PO 1 vs. Uzbekistan (Match 72): -24% ($380 → $288)
3. Curacao vs. Ivory Coast (Match 55): -20% ($380 → $305)
Only lesser-known matchups offer deals; all popular matchesall priced above face value.
Sellout Status (Supply Tightness)
- Cat 1 (Premium Seats): 15 matches sold out (79% sell rate)
- Cat 2 (Mid-tier Seats): 13 matches sold out (82% sell rate)
- Cat 3 (Cheapest Seats): Only 3 matches sold out (96% availability)
Higher-priced seats are selling out first. While Cat3 still has inventory, prices have surged dramatically.
Analyzing the Third Lottery Impact
The third lottery is believed to have caused the following effects:
Impact on the Resale Market
1. Increase in new winners → More supply for some matches
Some third lottery winners may be listing tickets on resale due to scheduling or budget constraints. In fact, some matches now show prices below face value.
2. Shift in supply-demand balance
Popular matches have seen demand surge and prices soar, while lesser-known matchups face oversupply and falling prices — a growing polarization.
3. Buyers becoming more selective
After three lottery rounds, more buyers are focusing on matches they truly want to attend, making mid-tier matchups harder to sell.
Will Japan match prices decline?
This is my personal prediction, butJapan match prices will decline going forwardis what I believe.
The Reasons
1. Potential for more resale listings
As the tournament approaches, more people will likely give up their tickets due to travel arrangements or budget issues.
2. Timing of supply increase
Close to the tournament, FIFA or organizers may also release additional tickets for sale.
3. Cooling of overheated prices
Current prices have a speculative element, and I expect a correction toward fair market value based on actual demand.
Of course nothing is certain, but rather than rushing to buy at inflated prices, watching price trends patiently could be a valid strategy.
Summary: Buying Strategy Advice
1. Cat3 is "not cheap"
Average $807 (approx. 120,000 yen). This is no longer an affordable price range.
2. Consider skipping Mexico venue matches
Prices are abnormally inflated and cost performance is poor.
3. For bargains, target lesser-known matchups
Matches 65, 72, 55 and others are available below face value.
4. No rush on Japan matches — wait and see
I recommend monitoring prices regularly in anticipation of future price drops.
5. Premium seats sell out first
If you are targeting Cat1 or Cat2, you need to decide quickly.
If group stage prices are already this high, knockout round prices are expected to be even steeper. However, the market is constantly changing. Regularly checking prices and buying at the best timing is key.
I hope everyone can secure their tickets and enjoy an amazing World Cup experience!
Data analysis date: February 9, 2026
Subject: Official resale prices for all 72 group stage matches
Bonus: Price Data Download
You can download the price data for all 72 matches used in this article as an Excel file. Feel free to use it for your own analysis.
📊 Download price data (Excel format)
*File contains price history for a specific date
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