On this site, we have been writing honestly about our real experiences with FIFA Official Resale in the "Resale Disaster Stories" series. As a follow-up, this article provides a quick update onthe current status of the knockout stage resale tickets we previously purchasedin brief.
The focus of this article is not about "should I sell now" or "am I making a profit." Ahead of the third lottery round,even if you end up winning too many tickets, the current situation suggests you probably do not need to worry excessivelyThe goal is to confirm that feeling with actual numbers. Of course, the final judgment and results are always at your own risk.
Fee structure premise: The harsh reality of FIFA Official Resale
As a premise, the FIFA Official Resale platform charges very high fees. Buyers pay 15 percent and sellers also pay 15 percent, so when your listed ticket sells, you only keep85 percent of the listing price. Since buyers also pay an extra 15 percent on top, you are effectively carrying about 30 percent in costs from the startThis point cannot be emphasized enough.
3 knockout stage matches: Current effective status
* Calculated at 1 USD = 155 JPY. The current minimum listing price is used as the "listing price" for calculations.
| Match No. / Venue | Cost (A) (Total Purchase Price) | Net Proceeds (B) (Listing Price x 85%) | Effective P/L (B - A) |
|---|---|---|---|
| M76 Houston | 555,000 yen | 606,000 yen | +51,000 yen |
| M89 Philadelphia | 963,000 yen | 908,000 yen | -55,000 yen |
| M94 Seattle | 963,000 yen | 853,000 yen | -110,000 yen |
| Total | 2,481,000 yen | 2,367,000 yen | -114,000 yen |
At this point,the total is roughly 110,000 yen in the redThat is the current position in purely numerical terms. However, these numbers are at a stage where matchups are not yet confirmed and are based on expected values, so this is not the time to draw any conclusions.
The "first wave" of price movement when matchups are confirmed
As we have repeatedly confirmed in our resale analyses, FIFA tickets tend tosee significant price movement once the knockout matchups are confirmedReal demand becomes visible once specific matchups are determined, shifting from the unknown to concrete interest.
Current numbers are pre-confirmation stage. Once top teams qualify, prices for certain matches may rise close to or beyond the fee threshold.
A closer look at each match
Houston (M76) remains in the black even after fees, showing the strength of demand for this match. Seattle (M94) has listing prices close to the original purchase price, so the fee portion directly translates to a loss. PhiladelphiaThere is no need to lock in gains or losses at this stage, and choosing not to sell is a perfectly natural decision.
How to think about winning too many tickets
This is the most important point we want to convey in this article.
Ahead of the third lottery round, many people may hold back from applying out of fear of winning too many tickets. However, based on the data so far,the current situation is not one where winning multiple lotteries equals immediate dangerThe official resale provides a legitimate exit, and prices tend to move when matchups are confirmed.
Of course,
There is no guarantee you will not lose money
The market could move against you
These are important points to keep in mind. However, this article does not aim to encourage or recommend resale. Instead, it simply presents the current numerical snapshot as a reference.
These are fundamental assumptions. Still, our honest view is that the current environment is not so extreme that duplicate wins would be irreversible.
Our stance as supporters
These tickets are ultimatelyfor cheering on Japan's national team at the venue if they are playing thereIf Japan advances, we may use the tickets as-is. If it becomes certain that Japan will not be playing, we may reorganize based on the situation. If there is unrealized profit, we might consider selling.We do not have strict rules like always selling when there is profit or never selling when at a loss.
Summary
This update is an article to check how much reassurance the data provides. The numbers suggest that even if you win multiple lotteries, there is no need to be overly anxious at this point.
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